陕西省粮食生产安全的驱动因素分析

以新中国成立以来陕西省的年鉴统计资料为依据,从粮食生产总量、耕地面积、粮食单产3个方面对粮食生产安全的驱动因素进行分析.结果表明:粮食生产总量和单产变化规律基本趋于一致,都呈波动增长趋势；耕地面积总体呈下降趋势,但下降趋势减缓；粮食生产总量由耕地面积和单产决定,当耕地面积逐渐减少时,粮食生产总量的增长只能依赖于粮食单产大幅增加；制约粮食单产的主要因素有:自然灾害、农业基础实施建设与农业投入、农业生态环境、土地政策、耕地质量、农业科技水平和劳动力文化水平等,所有这些因素都使得提高粮食生产综合能力的潜力变得极为有限.为保障陕西省粮食生产安全,针对陕西省粮食单产的影响因素提出了相应的对策建议.

Analysis on Driving Factors of Grain Production Security in Shaanxi Province

According to statistics data of Shaanxi Province since the founding of PRC,driving factors for grain safety production were analyzed from three aspects of grain output,cultivated land area,yield of per unit area.The results indicated that,the trends of grain output and yield of per unit area is similar,all indicated growth trend;The cultivated land area is declining,but the trend becomes slow.The grain output is controlled by cultivated land area and yield of per unit area.While the cultivated land area declining,the increase of grain output must depend on the rapid rise of the yield of per unit area.The main restrict factors of yield of per unit area includes: natural disaster,agricultural infrastructure and agricultural input,ecological environment,land policy,quality of cultivated land,the science and technology of agriculture,culture competence of labor force,et al.The potential of grain production has become very limited by all these factors.For the safety of grain production in Shaanxi Province,several proposals were put foward,which can give some reference to the policymaking of grain production.