| 国际农产品价格波动对中国宏观经济影响效应研究-基于CGE模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 林鑫 何凌云 安毅. 国际农产品价格波动对中国宏观经济影响效应研究-基于CGE模型[J]. 中国农学通报, 2010, 26(19): 445-449 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 林鑫 何凌云 安毅 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学经管学院期货与金融衍生品研究中心,北京,100083 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 摘要：为定量把握进口农产品价格波动对中国宏观经济各个指标及各行业的影响效应，本文基于2007年的投入产出表编制社会核算矩阵，建立多部门的CGE模型，在整个宏观经济的背景下量化分析进口农产品价格冲击对于中国经济的影响。研究表明：进口农产品价格上涨对宏观经济有一定的负效应，对实际GDP的影响效应非常小，且对国民经济各行业产生了紧缩作用。
|
| 关 键 词： | 进口农产品 CGE模型 宏观经济 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-05-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-06-17 |
The impact of price fluctuation of imported agricultural products on China’s macro-economy—an empirical study based on CGE model |
| |
| Lin Xin,He Lingyun,An Yi. The impact of price fluctuation of imported agricultural products on China’s macro-economy—an empirical study based on CGE model[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2010, 26(19): 445-449 |
| |
| Authors: | Lin Xin He Lingyun An Yi |
| |
| Affiliation: | ( Research Center of Futures ＆ Financial Derivatives , China Agricultural University , Beijing 100083) |
| |
| Abstract: | The price fluctuation of imported agricultural products will definitely have an impact on China ＇ s macro economic indices as well as various industries, in order to make quantitative analysis on this problem in the background of China ＇ s aggregate economic activity, a multi-sector computable general equilibrium（CGE） model based on the social accounting matrix（SAM） incorporating the latest 2007 input-output table has been constructed .The empirical study shows that： increase of imported agricultural products ＇ price will have a negative effect on macroeconomy and contraction effect on related industries, especially for those agriculture related sectors. However, real GDP is influenced very little by price increase. |
| |
| Keywords: | imported agricultural product CGE macroeconomy |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国农学通报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《中国农学通报》下载全文 |
