在役压力管道断裂失效风险分析软件的开发

针对石油工业管道和油气输送管道上可能存在的各种缺陷类型，充分考虑缺陷尺寸、工况载荷、断裂韧性和机械强度等参数的不确定性，基于BSI PD 6493-95、R／H／R6-98和SAPV-99等权威评定规范，提出了含缺陷在役压力管道的断裂失效风险分析方法，应用面向对象的编程语言Microsoft Visual C 6．0企业版开发了通用含缺陷压力管系断裂失效风险分析软件(SAPP-2002)，运用该软件可以很容易计算出管道系统中每个独立缺陷的安全概率和整个管道系统的失效概率。根据风险分析结果，可以确定管道在短期内需要采取缓和措施的区域，并可进行预防性维修。另外，在制定管道的检修计划时，还可以利用该软件的结构应力分析模块方便地确定管道应力高度集中部位，以便有针对性地选择焊缝并进行射线探伤，从而获得更准确的管道安全状况分析结果。

Risk Analysis Software of Fracture Failure for in-service Pressure Pipeline

Based on PD 6493, R/H/ R6-95 and SAPV-99, fracture failure risk analysis method is developed for assessing in-service pressure piping containing various defects, considering the uncertainties of several main random variables, such as defect sizes, suffered loads, material fracture toughness. Applying Microsoft Visual C++6.0, the safety assessment system of in-service pressure piping containing flaws (SAPP-2002) is successfully developed. The safety probability of separate defect and the failure probability of the whole pressure piping can be obtained by this software. The regions needed to maintain at present can be deter-mined by risk analysis results. Additionally, based on structure analysis module of in-service pressure piping of SAPP-2002,the most dangerous positions or the highest risk regions in the piping can be known,which can be used as a guideline to make some suggestive reconstruction schemes or maintenance measures. Then, the safety condition of in-service pressure piping can be improved to prevent the underlying accidents and the failure probability of the whole piping can be also reduced.