圈养野生动物疾病与气象因子的相关性及其预测

对1975～1998年间的北京动物园野生动物发病率进行统计，分析了兽类、禽类及其各系统发病率的月份、季度、年际变化特点，并与同期北京地区的气温等13项气象资料进行结合分析，讨论了每季度发病率与同期、前期气象因子的关系，在此基础上利用逐步回归分析，建立各月预报方程，经F检验，效果良好。

The Relativity between the Diseases of the Man-cultured Wild Animals and Meteorological Factors and Their Predictions

First, all wild animals in Beijing Zoo were classified into two kinds, namely,beasts and birds. Then, the monthly, seasonal and yearly incidences of all diseases of beasts and birds in different living systems from 1975 to 1998 were counted and their properties were analyzed, referring to the 13 meteorological factors in Beijing at the same time. The relationship between the seasonal incidences of the diseases and meteorological factors at the same time and the preceding periods was discussed. Finally, the predicting models for the seasonal incidences of the diseases were built with step by step regressions that had all been passed with F test.