“红三角” 经济圈耕地压力动态变化研究

针对区域日益突出的人口与粮食矛盾问题,运用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,分析了＂红三角＂经济圈耕地所受压力的变化。结果显示：2000—2010年耕地压力呈上升趋势,2003年和2008年出现2个明显峰值,韶关市、赣州市和郴州市3地变化略有差异。这是由于受农业内部调整、农民种植积极性下降以及气象灾害的影响而导致的粮食播种面积占总面积的比重、复种指数和粮食产量下降造成的;区域耕地压力上升的另一原因是人口增长过快。因此,为遏制其恶性发展,确保区域农业的可持续发展,建议：（1）控制人口增长;（2）实施耕地保护补偿机制,提高粮食种植的收益和农户种粮积极性;（3）改善农田条件,减少自然灾害对耕地的破坏;（4）优化农业用地结构,增加复种指数,提高粮食单产;（5）开发后备耕地资源,增加耕地数量。

Analysis on Characteristics of Dynamic Change of Pressure of Cultivated Land in the Red Triangular Economic Circle

In order to solve the serious problem of the contradiction between population and food-growing, this paper analyzed the changes of cultivated land pressure in the Red Triangular Economic Circle based on the model of the per capita minimal area of cultivated land and the cultivated land pressure index. The result showed that the pressure of cultivated land was on the rise between 2000 and 2010 and two obvious peaks appeared each in 2003 and 2008. There remains were some tiny discrepancies of the changes among Shaoguan City, Ganzhou City and Chenzhou City. Because of the agricultural interior structure adjustment, the fall of the farmers＇ producing initiatives and the influences of meteorological disasters, the proportion of the area sown to grain, the re-cultivated index and the grain output were all drop, which cause the rise of the pressure index ofcultivated land. Besides, the over-rapid population growth was another reason to that. Therefore, in order to keep down the development and make sure that the whole area＇s sustainable development, we should： Firstly,control the population growth. Secondly, in order to improve the income level of food-growing and the farmers＇ planting initiative, the compensation mechanism of cultivated land protection should be put into effect. Thirdly,improving the farmland conditions so then the destructive power of natural calamities can be decreased.Fourthly, to rise the per unit yield, we should optimize the farmland structure and increase the re-cultivated index. Last but not the lease, we can increase the farmland＇s quantity by exploiting untouched arable land resources.