十二运期间辽宁大风灾害风险评估分析

为了研究大风灾害对于十二运的影响，同时为今后举办此类赛事提供参考依据，利用辽宁省14个比赛城市1981—2012年6—9月的逐日气象资料，采用统计方法对第十二届全运会期间大风灾害风险进行了评估分析。结果表明：辽宁春季大风日数较多，8—9月大风日数较少；平均每年6—9月期间出现大风日数通常为1~3天，最多为8天，6—9月适合举办十二运。通过统计每次出现大风日的站数并进行归一化处理，定量评估十二运期间大风灾害的风险，得出十二运期间大风灾害风险不同等级的空间分布，结果表明辽宁大风灾害风险呈南北走向分布，南部特别是沿海地区大风风险大，可能对一些室外体育比赛产生影响。

Risk Assessment of Gale Damage in Liaoning 12th National Games

In order to study the impact of gale damage for the 12th National Games, while providing a reference for the future organization of such events. The risk assessment of gale damage in Liaoning 12th National Games was conducted according to the 32 years wind datum in Liaoning. The results indicated that: there were more strong wind days in spring compared with those in other seasons, with the most in April and the least in August. The average number of strong wind days from June to September was usually one or three with the maximum being eight. By calculating the number of stations with strong wind from 1981 to 2012, the spatial distribution of risk grades of gale damage during the National Games (June to September) was worked out. The risk level of gale damage was about the same over the whole Liaoning area, and the high risk area spread in the south-to-north direction with the highest risk in the south, especially in the south seacoast, which might affect the sport games.