基于ARIMA模型的世界大豆总产预测分析

为给我国大豆生产及进口提供决策参考信息,运用ARIMA(自回归单整移动平均)模型预测分析了2021年前世界大豆收获面积、平均单产及总产。结果表明:2018、2019、2020和2021年世界大豆收获面积分别为1.23×10~8,1.27×10~8,1.31×10~8和1.34×10~8 hm^2,平均单产分别为2 767,2 811,2 855和2 900 kg·hm^-2,总产分别为3.40×10~8,3.57×10~8,3.74×10~8和3.89×10~8 t;同期中国大豆收获面积分别为6.77×10~6,6.72×10~6,6.68×10~6和6.63×10~6 hm^2,平均单产分别为1 866,1 887,1 908和1 930 kg·hm^-2,总产分别为1.26×10~7,1.27×10~7,1.27×10~7和1.28×10~7 t;同期美国大豆收获面积分别为3.49×10~7,3.56×10~7,3.64×10~7和3.71×10~7 hm^2,平均单产分别为3 287,3 329,3 372和3 415 kg·hm^-2,总产分别为1.15×10~8,1.18×10~8,1.23×10~8和1.27×10~8 t。该结果意味着:世界大豆的收获面积在扩大、单产在提高、总产在增加,中国大豆收获面积在缓慢缩小、单产在提高、2004年后总产在减少,美国大豆收获面积在扩大、单产在提高、总产在增加。

Analysis of Global Soybean Production Quantity Predicted by ARIMA Model

As one of important crops used for food and oil in China and even the world, the soybean situation of production affects food security in the future. However up to now, there are few reports on ‘time series’ model used for studying situation and trend of global soybean production. Thus, in this paper ARIMA(Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is used for predicting and analyzing area harvested, average yield and production quantity of soybean by 2021 in the world. The results showed that in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, global soybean was respectively predicted to be 1.23×10^8, 1.27×10^8, 1.31×10^8 and 1.34×10^8 ha of area harvested, 2 767, 2 811, 2 855 and 2 900 kg·ha^-1 of average yield, and 3.40×10^8, 3.57×10^8, 3.74×10^8 and 3.89×10^8 t of production quantity, while Chinese soybean was respectively predicted to be 6.77×10^6, 6.72×10^6, 6.68×10^6 and 6.63×10^6 ha of area harvested, 1 866, 1 887, 1 908 and 1 930 kg·ha^-1 of average yield, and 1.26×10^7, 1.27×10^7, 1.27×10^7 and 1.28×10^7 t of production quantity, and American soybean was respectively predicted to be 3.49×10^7, 3.56×10^7, 3.64×10^7 and 3.71×10^7 ha of area harvested, 3 287, 3 329, 3 372 and 3 415 kg·ha^-1 of average yield, and 1.15×10^8, 1.18×10^8, 1.23×10^8 and 1.27×10^8 t of production quantity. These results mean that global soybean owns enlarging area harvested, rising yield and increasing production quantity, while Chinese soybean is slowly reducing area harvested, rising yield and decreasing production quantity from 2004, and American soybean holds enlarging area harvested, rising yield and increasing production quantity. The conclusion can provides decision-making reference for Chinese soybean production and import.