大豆灰斑病流行动态预测

１９８９－１９９２年对黑龙江省三江平的６个国营农场田间大豆灰斑病进行系统调查，共获得了１３０余组田间病害流行数据资料，利用５种生长模型对其进行拟合检验，通过比较绝对系数（Ｒ２）和回归误差（ＳＳ），认为Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型能较好地拟合大豆灰斑病田间动态变化过程。通过对影响田间发病的多种因素进行分析，ｔ１时病情（Ｘｔ１）、日均温度（Ｔ）、日均相对湿度（ＲＨ）、叶面湿润时数（ＷＰ）及雨日数（ＲＤ）是对大

EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECASTING OF SOYBEAN FROGEYE LEAFSPOT OF SOYBEAN

types of growing models were applied to simulate 130 groups of data obtained by systemic survey of frogeye leaf spot caused by Cercosporidium sojinum Liu et Guo(Cercospora sojina Hara) in commercial fields of 6 state farms in Sanjina Plain, Heilongjiang province in 1989-1992.The results showed that Logistic model was the best one for simulating the disease progress curve.By using primary disease imcidence and several climate factors, predicting models for apparent infection rate of two cultivars were developed as follow: Hongfeng 3:Hefeng 25:(r-the apparent infection rate,T-dialy mean temperature, RH-relative humidity, RD-rain day,WP-leaf wetness period.)