灰色关联度组合模型在涝灾预测中的应用

传统灰色预测模型在涝灾预测中有较多应用，但其预测精度较低。为提高模型的预测精度，在传统灰色预测模型基础上加入灰色关联度分析，从灰色关联度的角度发现数据之间的依赖关系，运用灰色预测模型预测数据的发展走向。以沈阳市1960-2010年涝灾年份数据为依据，建立灰色关联度组合模型，应用结果表明，该模型比传统灰色预测模型效果好，为涝灾预测增添了新手段。

Application of grey relational combined model in waterlog prediction

Traditional grey prediction model have many of application in waterlog prediction, but it's precision is very low. To improve the prediction precision, this paper add grey relation application on the basis of traditional grey prediction model, the model finds dependency relationships of sequences based on the grey incidences degree, uses the grey prediction model to forecast the trend of development among data ,apply of 1980-2010's data of Shenyang, set up combined prediction model, the results show that the effect is better than traditional grey prediction model, added a new means to predict patterns.