基于标准化降水指数的北疆地区近52年旱涝变化特征

21世纪以来极端气候事件频发，其中旱涝灾害对人类影响最为明显。该研究以北疆为例，选用标准化降水指数SPI（Standard Precipitation Index）为干旱指标，基于北疆地区23个气象站的1961—2012年逐月降水数据，运用趋势分析法、EOF法、REOF法和ArcGIS中的Kring插值工具，对其旱涝时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:过去52 a北疆地区气候呈湿润化趋势，年代和年际尺度上，干旱逐渐减少，雨涝则逐渐增多。年际尺度上，北疆地区不同时间尺度的SPI都呈增加趋势，表明其湿润化的趋势加强。年代尺度上，1960s和1970s干旱频次大于雨涝频次，而在1980s—2000s雨涝频次大于干旱频次。且北疆地区的旱涝在区域空间分布上呈现四种差异型，并以此划分为四个旱涝区域:北部地区（降水适宜区）、东部地区（极度干旱区）、西部地区（干旱区）和中部地区（雨涝区）。季节尺度上，中部的石河子、托里、克拉玛依和北部的福海地区都是相对湿润区域，东部的青河、北塔山和奇台地区则是相对干旱的区域。

Analysis on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought-Flood Based on Standard Precipitation Index in Northern Xinjiang in Recent 53 Years

Since the beginning of the 21st century,frequent extreme weather events have occurred under a background of global climate change. This pattern reflects that the characteristics of climate change and drought and floods are one of the most serious disaster impacts on human beings. Exploring the relationship between climate change and drought/flood disasters using climate change performance characteristics has become a prime research issue. Drought/flood events have frequently taken place in northern Xinjiang, however,few studies have concerned drought and flood assessment in this area. The characteristics of drought and flood in northern Xinjiang was analyzed based on monthly precipitation data of 23 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012 by means of different scales of standard precipitation index, combining with trend analysis, GIS spatial analysis techniques, EOF and REOF method. The results showed that there was a significantly humid trend in northern Xinjiang over the past 52 years. The frequency of drought decreased continuously during that period and specially presented the more frequency of flood from 1961 to 1980, whereas the frequency of flood continuously increased during that period and specially presented the more frequency of flood from 1981 to 2012. There were three types of spatial distribution of drought and flood in this area, which were divided into three regions:northern area (precipitation comfort zone), eastern area (extreme arid area), western area (arid area) and mid-area (waterlogging area). Similarly, Shehezi, Tuoli and Kelamayi regions are located at the center of Xinjiang and tend to be waterlogging all the year, Qinghe, Beitashan and Qitai regions are located in the eastern areas which were easy to be dry.