莱芜市人口的具有外生变量的时间序列预测模型

基于人口总量与经济增长有强相关关系,结合时间序列预测模型的良好适应性,建立了将经济增长作为外生变量的人口时间序列预测模型,以莱芜市1989-2011年人口总量和GDP总量数据为例,建立了莱芜市人口发展趋势的含外生变量的时间序列模型,并对模型的精确度进行检验,模型结果精确度较为理想。然后对2012-2016年莱芜市人口总量及其增长速度进行了预测,结果显示,"十二五"期间莱芜市总人口在未来几年将保持年均增长量为0.4万人,环比平均增长速度为0.3%,人口总规模将近130万。

Forecasting Model of Population Time Series with Exogenous Variables in Laiwu City

Based on the fact that population is strongly related to economic growth,with good adaptability of forecasting model of time series,the forecasting model of population time series with the economic growth as an exogenous variable was established.For example,Laiwu City,1989-2009 by the population data and GDP,established the model of population time series with the demographic trend as an exogenous variable.And accuracy of the model was tested,getting ideal results.Then the total population in Laiwu 2010-2016 and the growth rate was predicted.The results showed that in the"twelfth five-year"period the total population in Laiwu City in the next few years would maintain an average annual growth in volume of 4 thousand with the average growth link relative rate of 0.3% and the total size of nearly 1.3 million.