| Abstract: | We present prediction models for estimating tree mortality resulting from gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, defoliation in mixed oak, Quercus sp., forests. These models differ from previous work by including defoliation as a factor in the analysis. Defoliation intensity, initial tree crown condition (crown vigour), crown position, and species grouping classes were highly significant in categorical analysis of variance for mortality. Heavy defoliation intensity was shown to have a strong, consistent influence in increasing the probability of tree mortality. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a binomial decision tree procedure, was used to develop prediction models of mortality risk for use by forest managers. The best decision tree had 65 groups that correctly classified 75% of the live trees and 76% of the dead trees. Models were run separately by defoliation class and provided correct classifications between 63 and 78% of the trees. Forest land managers can use these models to assign probabilities of death for moderate and heavy defoliation intensity levels and compare predicted mortality to mortality of undefoliated trees to determine how gypsy moth defoliation will affect their stands. The probabilities can be used to develop marking guides Lased on projected defoliation levels for implementing silvicultural treatments to minimize gypsy moth effects in forest stands prior to infestation. |
