2019—2021年东山枇杷气候(气象)条件评价与对比分析

苏州市吴中区东山镇是中国枇杷种植传统四大产区之一,也是吴中区重要的经济作物,但由于枇杷的生长发育易受气象条件影响,使得每年的产量不稳。因此,利用气象资料来分析气象条件对枇杷生产的具体利弊和影响程度,有利于科学的发展枇杷产业、提高气象为农服务效益。本文基于数理统计的方法对2019—2021年的枇杷产量和气象条件进行分析,结果表明：2019—2021年东山整体气候条件较为适宜,但灾害性天气也同时存在。其中2019年成熟枇杷的主要不利气候条件为花期和幼果期异常偏少的日照、花期异常偏多的降水量以及低温和降雪天气过程;2020年主要不利气候条件为果实膨大期偏多的日照;2021年为花期和幼果期出现的气温偏低和两次寒潮天气过程。根据同一时期枇杷的生长和产量情况可知,枇杷花腐病的主要原因是花期连阴雨,并表现为降水量的异常偏多和日照的异常偏少,连续2旬出现日照距平百分率小于-50%的情况或是判断花腐病的灾害阈值。此外,寒潮天气过程所带来的低温、雨雪是导致2021年枇杷花遭受冻害、幼果出现栓皮病的主要原因。

Meteorological Conditions of Dongshan Loquat in 2019 - 2021: Evaluation and Comparative Analysis

Dongshan town in Wuzhong District of Suzhou is one of the four traditional loquat production areas in China, and loquat is an important cash crop in Wuzhong District. However, the annual yield of loquat is unstable because its growth and development are easily affected by meteorological conditions. Therefore, using meteorological data to analyze the influence of meteorological conditions on loquat is conducive to the scientific development of loquat industry and the promotion of meteorological services for agriculture. Based on the method of mathematical statistics, this paper analyzed the loquat yield and meteorological conditions from 2019 to 2021 in Wuzhong. The results showed that the overall meteorological conditions were relatively suitable for loquat growth from 2019 to 2021, but disastrous weather also existed at the same time. The main adverse meteorological conditions of loquat in 2019 were abnormally less sunshine at florescence and young fruit stage, excessive precipitation at florescence, and low temperature and the snow. The main adverse meteorological condition in 2020 was more sunshine in fruit expansion stage. In 2021, the main adverse meteorological conditions were low temperature and two cold wave processes at florescence and young fruit stage of loquat. According to loquat growth and yield at the same time, the main cause of blossom blight was continuous rainy days during flowering period, which could be characterized by the abnormally more precipitation and less sunshine. The anomaly percentage of sunshine less than -50% in two periods of ten days could be taken as the threshold value of loquat blossom blight. In addition, the low temperature, rain and snow caused by the cold wave process were the main reasons of the freezing damage on loquat flowers and corky bark on young fruits in 2021.