| 人均GDP时间序列模型及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 官琳琳,门可佩. 人均GDP时间序列模型及预测[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2009, 37(12): 5340-5341 |
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| 作者姓名： | 官琳琳 门可佩 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学数理学院,江苏南京,210044;南京信息工程大学数理学院,江苏南京,210044 |
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| 摘 要： | 大多数经济时间序列存在惯性或是迟缓性，通过对这种惯性的分析可以由时间序列的当前值和过去值对未来值进行预测。用ARIMA似模型可以对天津市人均国内生产总值（1978～2006）时间序列进行建模和短期外推预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 人均GDP 非平稳时间序列 ARIMA模型 预测 |
The Time Series Mode and Forecast of Per-capita GDP |
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| GUAN Lin-lin et al. The Time Series Mode and Forecast of Per-capita GDP[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2009, 37(12): 5340-5341 |
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| Authors: | GUAN Lin-lin et al |
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| Affiliation: | GUAN Lin-lin et al(College of Math & Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science , Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044) |
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| Abstract: | The majority of economic time series have a kind of inertia,which is said to be tardiness.It can analyze the kind of inertia in order to forecast future values through the current value and past values.This study mainly discusses how to construct the mode of ARIMA for the economic time series of per capita GDP from 1978 to 2006 in Tianjin and how to forecast the future value in short term. |
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| Keywords: | Per-capita GDP Non-stationary time series ARIMA model Forecast |
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