珲春盆地近50年热量条件及低温冷害的变化特征分析

利用一元线性回归、滑动平均等方法统计分析1960~2007年48年来珲春市年平均气温变化特征及日平均气温稳定通过0、5、8、10℃的积温和持续日期、初霜日、终霜日、无霜期、≥30℃高温日数的年代际变化。结果表明,珲春市气温在全球气候变暖的背景下也在上升,年平均气温增温率为0.37℃/10年,各界限积温每10年增幅在60~80℃,各界限温度持续日数和无霜期在20世纪90年代后分别增长了7 d和22 d,≥30℃高温日数增长3 d。低温冷害在气候变暖的背景下,尤其是进入2000年代夏季气温持续偏高的影响下明显减少,冷期中以延迟型和混合型冷害为主,暖期里以障碍型冷害为主。

Change Characteristics Analysis of the Heat Conditions and Low Temperature Damage in Hunchun Basin during Recent 50 Years

Using the methods of unary linear regression,moving average and so on,the annual average temperature change characteristics,the decadal changes of the accumulated temperature and duration of passing the daily average temperature through 0,5,8,10 ℃,the first frog day,the final frog day,frost-free period,the days of ≥ 30 ℃ high temperature in Hunchun City from 1960 to 2007 were counted and analyzed.The results showed that the temperature in Hunchun City rose under the background of global warming.The increased rate of the annual average temperature was 0.37 ℃ per ten years.The increasing amplitude of each critical accumulated temperature in each ten years was from 60 ℃ to 80 ℃.The duration days of each critical temperature and frostless period increased 7 days and 22 days respectively after 1990s,and the days with ≥ 30 ℃ high temperature increased 3 days.Under the background of global warming,low temperature damage obviously decreased,especially under the influences of high temperature in the summer of 1990s.The delayed and mixed chilling damages were in cold period and the obstacle chilling damages were mainly in warm period.