基于主成分分析的长江经济带水资源承载力评价

目的]综合评价长江经济带水资源承载力的时空变化特征,为长江经济带水资源的合理利用和区域的可持续发展提供决策参考。方法]从社会经济、水资源量、用水量和废水排放量4个方面选取18项指标,建立长江经济带水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法对长江经济带9省2市水资源承载力的时空变化特征进行了综合评价。结果]2004—2013年长江经济带水资源承载力呈现逐年上升的趋势,水资源赋存条件、人口的增加、经济的发展以及水污染治理水平的提高是水资源承载力上升的主要驱动因素;长江经济带水资源承载力的空间差异显著,东部和中部地区总体较好,西部地区除四川省外水资源承载力相对较差。结论]长江经济带水资源承载力的时空变化主要受所在地区的水资源赋存条件和社会经济条件的影响。

Assessment on Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yangtze River Economic Zone Based on Principal Component Analysis

Objective] Evaluation of spatial-temporal characteristics of the water resources carrying capacity of Yangtze River economic zone is of great significance to the rational utilization of water resources and the sustainable development of the region.Methods] An evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity that include 18 indices from four aspects, including social economic, the quantity of water resources, water consumption and wastewater discharge, was established. The spatial-temporal characteristics of water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic zone were evaluated using the principal component analysis method.Results] The water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic zone increased during 2004-2013. The main factors to drive the increasing of water resources carrying capacity are natural conditions of water resources, population and economic growth, and water pollution control. The spatial differences of water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic zone are significant. The water resources carrying capacity of the eastern and the middle regions is in good situation, whereas the water resources carrying capacity of the western region is relatively poor except Sichuan Province.Conclusion] These differences are mainly attributed to the natural conditions of water resources and the economic development level.