宁夏水稻稻瘟病发生程度的气象等级预报

[目的]为利用气象条件分析对水稻稻瘟病的发生做出预警提供理论依据。[方法]采用权重分析技术,确定能表示各种综合病情程度的适宜气象指标,并进行历史反演、典型灾年分析、验证和试报检验。[结果]反演结果表明,1971～2005年期间,宁夏适宜水稻稻瘟病发生的气象条件出现在1973、1976～1978、1995、2002年,适宜程度均为5级,极适宜稻瘟病的发生。实际上,1973、1976、1978、1995、2002年宁夏都大面积发生了水稻稻瘟病。通过观测平罗县历年水稻稻瘟病病情指数确定的病害实际发生等级与反演结果相差0～1个等级,反演结果相当准确。[结论]该方法具有一定的评价和预报精度,可以准确预报出水稻稻瘟病发生的适宜气象条件和等级,特别是对大发生年的预报。

Meteorological Grade Prediction of the Occurrence Degree of Rice Blast in Ningxia

[Objective] The aim of the study was to supply theoretical foundation for predicting the occurrence of rice blast by analysis on meteorological condition.[Method] The suitable meteorological indices,which could represent various comprehensive severity extent,were ascertained by weight analysis technology and the historical inversion,analysis on typical hunger year,testification and forecast test were performed.[Result] The inversion results showed that in the period from 1971 to 2005,the meteorological condition suitable for the occurrence of rice blast in Ningxia appeared in 1973,1976-1978,1995 and 2002 and their suitable degrees were grade 5,which indicated that the meteorological condition was extremely suitable for the occurrence of rice blast.In fact,the rice blast occurred in large scale in Ningxia in 1973,1976,1978,1995 and 2002.The actual occurrence grade of the disease,which was ascertained through observing the severity extent indices of rice blast in Pingluo County in previous years,had difference of 0-1 grade from inversion results,indicating that the inversion results were quite accurate.[Conclusion] This method had some evaluation and prediction accuracy.It could accurately predict the suitable meteorological condition and grade of the occurrence of rice blast,especially for the years in which the rice blast would occur in large scale.