陕西省耕地资源格局变化及驱动力研究

根据陕西省1990—2010年的耕地统计资料,研究耕地利用现状及其时空变化规律,应用主成分分析和多元线性回归模型,探索耕地资源与14个驱动因子之间的关系。结果表明,19年间耕地总面积和人均耕地面积都经历了＂缓慢减少—急速减少—相对稳定并略有上升＂的变化过程。陕西省耕地面积总体呈减少趋势,各地区耕地内部结构变化较大。农业...

Analysis of the Cultivated Land Pattern Changes and Its Driving Forces in Shaanxi Province

The cultivated land use status and its temporal-spatial pattern were analyzed based on the cultivated land statistical data in Shaanxi Province between 1990 and 2010.In this study,the principal component analysis method and the multiple linear regression models were applied to explore the relationship between the cultivated land resource and 14 driving factors.The result shows that: the total cultivated area and its average level have experienced "slow reduce-rapidly shrinking-relative stability and increased slightly" change process.The cultivated area in Shaanxi Province was basically decreasing for years,its internal structure changed greatly.The main driving factors of the cultivated area changing are agricultural structure adjustment,agricultural modernization level,social and economic factors.Using the grey dynamic prediction model GM(1,1) to forecast the cultivated land area in the following 11 years,the result shows that the cultivated area will decline continuously in the future,the cultivated area might be 2 263.74 khm2 by 2020.