甘肃特种作物对气候暖干化的响应特征及适应技术

为了探讨气候暖干化对甘肃特种作物的响应特征，通过选取甘肃省80个气象站点1961-2010年的气象要素值计算和分析，以及采用田间试验和对比调查等研究方法。结果表明，暖干化是甘肃现代气候变化的基本特征。甘肃年平均气温气候倾向率均为正值，年平均气温每10年增温0.29℃，温度升高1.4℃，其中1997年是突变年。≥0℃积温每10年增温40~80℃；年降水量自1961年以来呈持续下降趋势，降水距平百分率以每10年减少1.7%的速率递减。以黄河为界，以东呈减少趋势，每10年减少10~30 mm，以西呈增多趋势，每10年增加4~12 mm，减少的幅度明显高于增加的幅度；年平均日照以每10年下降9.8 h的速率递减。进入21世纪，气候暖干化的势头有所减缓。揭示了啤酒大麦、啤酒花、百合、花椒、油橄榄、板栗、黄花菜等7种特种作物的生长发育、种植区域、气象灾害、生物量、产量与品质等对现代气候暖干化的响应特征。初步认为，气候暖干化对特种作物的影响是多方面的、复杂的且利弊并重。并提出了制定精细化特种作物综合农业自然资源区划，确定精准的最适宜和适宜种植区范围，合理调整种植结构；在最适宜和适宜种植区内加快优质商品生产种植基地建设，创建特种作物现代农业发展模式和建立管理生产新模式适应气候变化；根据未来气候预测和不同气候年型调整作物种植结构和比例；加强气象灾害监测、评估、预警与防御工作等4个方面的措施应对气候暖干化。

Response Characteristics of Climatic Hot-drying on Special Crops and Adaptive Technique in Gansu Province

Based on the meteorological data in 80 weather stations from 1961 to 2010,we analyzed variation characteristics of climate changing in Gansu.The results showed that,main feature of climate changing was hot-drying.The annual climatic trend rate in Gansu showed positive.The annual mean temperature increased by 0.29℃ every ten years and accumulated by 1.4℃ in a half century.The turning point appeared in 1977.The accumulated temperature above 0℃ increased by range of 40℃ to 80℃ every ten years.The precipitation showed a decreasing trend since 1961 and the precipitation departure decreased with 1.7% every ten years.Bounded by the Yellow River,the precipitation increased by 4 mm to 12 mm in the western and decreased by 10 mm to 30 mm in the eastern every ten years.The annual sunshine duration decreased by 9.8 hours every ten years and the trend of hot-drying went slowly in 21 st century.The influence characteristics of climate changing on growth,planting region,meteorological disaster,biomass,yield and quantity of malting barley,hop,lily,pepper,oil olive,Chinese chestnut and day lily sec.seven special crops had been found in this paper.We suggested that,climate hot-drying exerted various and complex influence on plant,both of advantages and disadvantages.The refine and comprehensive regionalization for special crops had been made.We suggested that the high quality goods production plant base should been set up in optimum district and special crops field modern management should been established in order to adapt climate change.We should adjust the plant structure by climate forecast and pay more attention on meteorological disaster monitoring,assessment,early warning and defense.