玛纳斯河流域融雪径流与积雪-气象因子分析

利用雪盖、径流、气象因子数据分析了玛纳斯河流域融雪径流特征及其与积雪-气温-降雨的关系。根据地形、植被和积雪分布特征建立了流域分带体系。以2000-2008年3-6月8日合成MODIS积雪产品（MOD10A2）为基础，插值获取流域分带日均积雪面积数据。根据天山山区气温-降雨的垂直地带性特征，以肯斯瓦特水文站1995-2008年逐日气温、降水数据为数据源，应用DEM递推获取流域分带日均气温、降水数据。定性分析了流域各带气温、降雨和积雪分布特征及其定量相关关系。同时，分析了流域积雪面积和径流的定量关系。结果表明:①低山荒漠草原带3月22号前后，云杉林带4月11号前后，高山高寒草甸带5月14号前后，高山冰雪带6月12号前后气温持续在零度以上；②降水年内分配不均，降水主要集中在夏季，占年降水量的43.39% ，春季占28.14% ，秋冬季降雨偏少，分别为13.04%和15.24%；③各带积雪面积和气温相关性很高，3-6月各带气温逐渐升高，积雪逐渐融化，除高山冰雪带不完全消融外其余分带积雪在此期间全部消融；高山高寒草甸带和高山冰雪带积雪面积和气温呈线性相关；④流域总的积雪面积和径流散点图显示出很好的幂指数相关；不同年，积雪面积与径流关系呈规律性变化。

Correlation Analysis on Snow-Climate Factors and Its Effects on Snowmelt Runoff in Manasi River Basin

In this paper, we analyzed the relations and characters of runoff, snow, temperature and precipitation in Manasi river basin. Based on the distribution of landform, vegetation and snow cover, we found the system of the classified zone for the study basin. By using the data of 8-day MOD10A2, one production of MODIS, daily snow cover data were computed by the way of interpolation. Meanwhile, based on the character of vertical terrain in Tianshan Mountain, we used the DEM to get daily temperature and precipitation datum of each zone. Qualitative and quantitative analysis was made within the zone temperature, precipitation and snow cover area. And we also made quantitative analysis between snow cover area in the whole basin and runoff. Hungriness and plain in low elevation appears continuous positive temperature on March 22. Spruce and forest zone does on April 11. Cold meadow in high mountain does on May 14. Ice-snow zone does on June 12. The annual distribution of precipitation is very inequality. It mainly falls in summer and accounts for 43.39% of the yearly whole precipitation amount. There is separately 28.14%,13.04% and 15.24% in spring, autumn and winter. There was high correlation between snow cover area and temperature in every zone of the basin. With the temperature gradually increasing from March to June, snow began to melt. Except the ice-snow zone, snow in the other three zones entirely melted in the period. At the same time, snow and temperature had a linear correlation in cold meadow and ice-snow zones. The scatter dot between snow area of the whole basin and runoff showed that they had a good exponential correlation. In different years, there was a disciplinary change between snow cover area and runoff in the study area.