气候变化对中国主要作物生育期的影响研究进展

作物生育进程受环境直接影响，其中气候条件是主要的影响因子之一。本文基于中国粮食主产区分布，阐述了历史气候变化对小麦、玉米和水稻生育期的影响。结果表明，气候变化使北方冬麦区小麦播期推迟，传统品种生育期缩短；西北区冬麦越冬死亡率降低，水分利用率提高，但全生育期缩短。东北区春玉米适宜播期提前，近50年来潜在适宜生长期延长10天左右，晚熟玉米面积增加；华北区小麦-玉米一年两熟适宜生育期延长，推动了小麦—玉米“两晚技术”发展；西北区玉米整体播期提前，灌区玉米全生育期延长，旱区生育期缩短。长江中下游稻区水稻生育期普遍提前，除东北区水稻生育期延长约3天/10年，其他地区水稻全生育期基本呈缩短趋势。总体而言，气候变暖使生产中作物春季适宜播期提前，秋季适宜播期推迟，生产中传统作物品种生育期普遍缩短。通过品种选择和播期调整，可以充分发挥热量资源潜力，规避关键生育期灾害风险，并通过延长作物生长期提高产量。

The Knowledge of Climate Change Impacts on Growth Durations of Major Crops in China

The processes of crop growth are directly influenced by the environment, and climate condition is one of crucial factors. Based on the distribution of the major grain-producing areas in China, the paper summarized the impacts of historical climate change on the growth durations of wheat, corn and rice. The results showed that climate change has delayed winter wheat sowing date and shortened the growth period in the North China. The mortality of wheat in winter decreased, water use efficiency was increased and the whole growth period shortened in Northwest China. For corn, suitable planting dates for spring corn were ahead of conventional schedule, potential growth period extended for about ten days in recent fifty years and planting areas of late maturity corn increased in Northeast China. The growth durations of summer corn were extended which promoted "two late planting technologies" in the wheat-corn rotation planting system in North China. Moreover, sowing date of corn was ahead of regular time and the whole growth period was extended on irrigated corn but shortened on rain-fed corn in Northwest China. For rice, the growth period was ahead of regular schedule and filling stage was shortened in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The growth duration of rice was only extended about 3 days per decade in Northeast China and it was shortened in the rest areas of China. In general, climate warming made sowing date earlier for spring planting crops and later for autumn planting crops, the whole growth duration of the traditional crop varieties commonly shortened. Through the variety selection and technology adjustment, climate warming can give more potential productivity to crops by heat resource increase and avoid disaster risk in some extent.