朝阳地区近 50年生长季小麦有效积温变化特征分析

为了研究气候变化对朝阳小麦生长季有效积温的影响,合理应对气候变化,为区域气候变暖对农业生产影响评估及农业防灾减灾体系建设和完善提供基础依据。利用朝阳和建平1961—2011年共51年3—7月逐日平均气温资料,通过采用气候统计分析方法,分析了朝阳干旱地区生长季小麦有效积温变化规律和特征。结果表明：建平和朝阳有效积温气候均值均表现为增大趋势,朝阳春季、夏季和年有效积温气候均值都大于建平,增大变率高于建平;1970—1979年热量条件最差,2001年前后热量条件最好;朝阳和建平夏季和年有效积温增暖趋势基本一致,1996—1997年为突变点;建平1980—1989年增暖最大,朝阳2000—2009年增暖最大,增暖幅度大于建平;年有效积温增加趋势朝阳比建平明显,夏季有效积温增加趋势建平比朝阳显著。

Analysis on Effective Accumulated Temperature Variation Characteristic of Growth Jixiaomai in Chaoyang Area in 50 Years

In order to study the effect of climate change on wheat growth season and effective accumulated temperature of Chaoyang, the rational response to climate change, to provide the basis for the impact of regional climate change on agricultural production and agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation system construction and improvement. Use of Chaoyang and Jianping from March to July from 1961 to 2011, the daily average temperature data, through the use of climate statistical analysis method, analyzes the Jixiaomai effective accumulated temperature change rule and characteristics of growth arid region of Chaoyang. The results showed that: Jianping and Chaoyang effective accumulated temperature climate mean showed increasing trend, Chaoyang spring, summer and annual effective accumulated temperature was higher than the mean climate of Jianping, increase rate was high in Jianping; the worst heat condition was in 1970-1979, and the best heat condition was near 2001; Chaoyang and Jianping summer and annual effective accumulated temperature warming trend was basically consistent, point mutation was in 1996-1997; 1980-1989 in Jianping become warming, rising from 2000 to 2009 warming, warming faster than Jianping; annual effective temperature increased Chaoyang more apparent than in Jianping, the summer temperature increasing tendency in Jianping than in Chaoyang significantly.