植物生长季热量资源趋势变化与气候突变

为了调整沈阳市植物结构，对低温冷害进行监测研究，保障粮食生产安全提供依据，采用气候统计诊断分析方法，对近60年沈阳市植物生长季热量资源变化趋势及突变进行研究。结果表明：近60年沈阳市植物生长季平均气温和≥10℃活动积温均呈显著上升趋势，气候倾向率分别为0.164℃/10 a和51.52℃·d/10 a。近30年植物生长季平均气温升高0.6℃；≥10℃活动积温增加180℃·d。应用信噪比诊断1951—2010年长序列气候突变不明显。经滑动平均和年际逐渐延长，植物生长季平均气温和≥10℃活动积温保持持续上升的正相关。研究结果对合理利用热量资源，调整农植物种植结构，合理安排农业生产工程具有参考价值。

Change Tendency of Heat Resource and Sudden Change in Climate in Growing Season

In order to adjust the crop and plant structure in Shenyang, to monitor and research chilling damage, and provide foundation for insuring safe food production, the author analyzed the change tendency and sudden change of thermal energy in nearly 60 a crop and plant＇ s growing season in Shenyang by utilizing the method of statistical diagnosis and analysis of climate. The result showed that： both of the average temperature in the 60 a crop and plant＇ s growing season in Shenyang and the active accumulated temperature which was greater or equal to 10℃ increased dramatically, with climate trend rate 0.164℃/10 a and 51.52℃ ·d/10 a separately. The average temperature in nearly 30 a growing season rose by 0.6℃ and the active accumulated temperature which was greater or equal to 10 ℃ increased by 180℃ · d. The signal-to-noise ration indicated that long- sequence sudden change in climate between 1951 and 2010 was not obvious. With the moving average and the prolongation of years, there was a positive correlation between the average temperature in growing season and active accumulated temperature that was greater or equal to 10℃, which sustained an upward trend. The results had reference value to the rational use of heat recourse, planting structure adjustment, as well as making agricultural production projects arranged reasonably.