昆明小麦的气候风险评估

在全球气候变化背景下，研究昆明小麦的气候风险度，可为科学地规避气候风险提供参考和依据，运用模糊数学理论，综合小麦气候适宜度，构建风险度模型，对昆明小麦的气候风险度进行评估。结果表明，近几十年来，昆明小麦气候风险度和日照风险度变化不大，趋势较为平稳；降水风险度偏高，变化幅度大而且有增加的趋势。随着近几十年的气候变暖，温度风险度有较为明显的下降趋势，小麦全生育期降水风险度最高，温度风险度次之，日照风险度维持在较低水平，且基本无变化。运用模糊数学理论建立的作物气候风险度模型能客观反映气候条件对小麦生长发育的风险程度。昆明小麦降水风险度高，因此在生产中可通过合理安排种植制度、水分调控等方面的措施规避气候风险。

Assessment of Wheat Climate Risk Degree in Kunming

Under the background of the global climate variation, the wheat climate risk degree in Kunming was assessed. It can provide theoretical foundation for avoiding the climate risk. On the basis of fuzzy mathematics theory, with comprehensive wheat climate suitability, the risk model was established. On the above basis, the climate risk evaluation was made for the wheat in Kunming. The results showed that: in last 40 years, wheat climate risk degree was steady and changed little. The precipitation risk degree was high with large variable extents and presented increasing tendency. The temperature risk degree appeared to decline with climate warming. The sunshine risk maintained at low level and changed little. The model for crop climatic risk degree based on fuzzy mathematics theory could objectively reflect the risk degree of climate for crop growth. The precipitation risk was high in whole growing stage of wheat in Kunming. So the main method to avoid the risk was to improve the water control and arrange cropping system rationally.