新疆各地州（市）相对资源承载力时空差异分析

为了多角度多维度地丰富相对资源承载力理论和应用的研究，考虑研究区的整体性、资源的开放性和动态性，在原有相对资源承载力模型的基础上，添加了天然湿地资源和林木资源对原模型进行改进，利用改进后的新模型对比分析了2004—2009年新疆各地州（市）的土地、水、经济、能源、天然湿地、林木相对资源承载力、相对综合承载力、承载状态及度的变化趋势。研究发现，从各地区各资源承载力纵向比较来看，总体呈上升趋势的有土地资源承载力和经济资源承载力，呈下降趋势的有水资源承载力和能源资源承载力，天然湿地资源承载力和林木资源承载力与其变化趋势相似，全区有增有减。全区相对综合承载力多数地区处于上升趋势。一直处于严重超载状态的地区有石河子市、伊犁地区，表明这些地区人口处于警戒状态，必须大力控制人口增长速度。虽然吐鲁番地区、哈密地区、克州、克拉玛依市、阿勒泰地区、巴州连续6年分别处于富余、非常富余状态，但这些地区的富余度和非常富余度均呈下降趋势，即人口的增长略高于承载力的增长，说明在经济发展的同时，也应注意控制这6个地区的人口数量，使之处于可持续发展状态。

The Difference Analysis in Time and Space of the Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources Around the State (City) in Xinjiang

In order to multi-angle research theory and application of bearing capacity of relative resources carrying capacity, as well as considering integrity of research areas, open and dynamic of resources. This paper based on the new model of bearing capacity of relative resources carrying capacity that added in natural wetland and forest resources. From 2004 to 2009, the author analyzed change trend of relative carrying capacity of economic, energy, land, water, natural wetland, forest, and analyzed compositive carrying capacity of resources and its bearing state and degree of changing around the state (city) in Xinxiang. It was found that: to longitudinal compared from various relative carrying capacity of resources, relative carrying capacity of land resources and economic resources rose in the state (city) of each relative carrying capacity of resources, but relative carrying capacity of water resources and energy resources reduced, relative carrying capacity of natural wetland resources and forest resources changed similarly, which was not obvious. In most areas, the compositive carrying capacity of resources was in a rising trend. A state of serious overload region from a relatively comprehensive bearing capacity: Shihezi, Yili Region. The state region had been in surplus 6 years in a row: Turpan and Hami Areas, Basque, it had been in a very abundance areas: Karamay, Altay Region, Bazhou, continuously was in surplus, but the surplus state region was a downward trend, which population growth was slightly higher than the bearing capacity of growth. When developing economic, these six areas must control population.