基于GIS的县域气象灾害与小麦生育期气象灾害趋势分析——以阳谷县为例

为了更好地探究县域内的气象灾害的具体分布特征及其对冬小麦生产的影响，提高农业生产减灾防灾水平。通过运用GIS、统计学和农业气象学等方法，以乡镇为单元，对阳谷县气象灾害风险趋势进行研究，系统分析了阳谷县1981—2011年的风险指标和综合风险指数，明细了不同气象灾害在该县的发生频率和综合风险指数的地域分布规律，计算各乡镇的综合农业气象灾害风险性，并进行相应的灾害趋势分析。趋势分析结果表明：各乡镇干旱发生频率基本一致；洪涝发生频率则由东北向西南逐步增强；高温灾害日数由西南向东北逐渐减弱，低温则反之；冰雹则主要集中在城区中部乡镇；而冬小麦生育期内高庙王的综合气象灾害风险度最高，金斗营、阿城镇的综合气象灾害风险度最低。

County GIS-based Meteorological Disasters and Wheat Growing Trend Analysis of Meteorological Disasters: A Case Study in Yanggu County

In order to better explore the county＇ s meteorological disasters specific distribution and its impact on winter wheat production, improve the level of disaster prevention and reduction of agricultural production. The author used the GIS, statistical and agricultural meteorology and other methods, to the township as a unit, for Yanggu County meteorological disaster risk trends in research, systems analysis of Yanggu County 1981 to 2011 year risk indicators and integrated risk index, details of the different meteorological disasters in the county＇ s comprehensive risk index frequency and geographical distribution of computing the township comprehensive agricultural meteorological disaster risk, and the corresponding hazard trend analysis. Trend analysis showed that： the township basically had the same frequency of droughts; flood frequency gradually increased from northeast to southwest; disasters hot days gradually weakened from southwest to northeast, cold and vice versa; hail was mainly concentrated in the central urban township; while winter wheat king during Gaomiao highest integrated meteorological disaster risk, Doo camp, a comprehensive meteorological disasters town lowest degree of risk.