黑龙江省1961—2011年可利用降水量的气候变化特征

为了减轻黑龙江省水资源供需矛盾，实现水资源合理利用与开发，并为农业用水资源分配和旱涝灾害的成因研究提供科学依据，利用黑龙江省60个气象站1961—2011年地面气象观测数据，应用气候趋势系数、气候倾向率等方法分析了黑龙江省可利用降水量的时空演变特征。结果表明，近51年来，黑龙江省年可利用降水量呈下降趋势，气候倾向率达-4.4 mm/10 a，春季和冬季显著增加，夏季和秋季呈减少趋势。从空间分布看，全省可利用降水量整体呈下降趋势，松嫩平原大部和三江平原水资源供需矛盾将日益突出。黑龙江省降水量对可利用降水量起着决定性作用，气温在一定程度上对水资源也有着深刻影响。

The Characteristics of Utilizable Precipitation over Heilongjiang from 1961 to 2011

In order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Heilongjiang, achieve reasonable use of water resources and development, and to provide a scientific basis for the water allocation and droughts and floods of agricultural, the authors used the observation data at 60 stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2011, the spatial and temporal variations of utilizable precipitation were analyzed by using the method of regression analysis. The results showed that: in recent 51 years, the utilizable precipitation was declined in Heilongjiang, as the climate trend rate -4.4 mm/10 a, spring and winter increase significantly, summer and autumn showed a decreasing trend. Spatial distribution of the change rate shows that this trend was general but not universal. The water supply and demand in Songnen Plain and Sanjiang Plain would become increasingly prominent. The precipitation played a decisive role for the utilizable precipitation; the temperature also had a profound impact on the water resources in Heilongjiang.