基于Microsoft Excel统计函数的农业气象预报模型研究

为了给当地政府、农业部门、农户提供准确及时的农作物播种期、发育期等农用天气预报,通过日平均气温稳定通过5℃初日与0℃初日间隔日数预报模型和水稻播种-抽穗天数预报模型的建立,介绍Microsoft Excel SLOPE、INTERCEPT、LINEST统计函数在农业气象预报中的应用。实践证明,这3种函数能对已知数据进行最佳线性拟和,可以轻而易举地处理诸多变量之间的相关关系,根据返回的数值数组,可以直接观察到所有自变量与因变量之间的相关程度和F值。因此,利用Microsoft Excel统计函数制作农业气象预报模型,不仅可以大大地减轻劳动强度,而且还可以提高工作效率和预报效果。

The Research of Agricultural Meteorological Forecast Model Based on the Microsoft Excel Statistics

In order to provide sowing time, growth of crops and other agricultural weather forecast accurately and timely for local governments, agricultural sector and farmers, by the establishment of model about the interval number of the average daily temperature through the 5℃ and 0℃ steadily and rice forecast from growing to earing. The author introduced the application of Microsoft Excel SLOPE, INTERCEPT and LINEST the statistics function to the agriculture weather forecasts model. Practices showed that： these three kinds of functions could carry on the best reglin to the known data, and easily deal the relationship between variables, and according to the returned array to observe directly the interrelation between all the independent variables and dependent variable and F value. Therefore, agricultural meteorological forecast model by use of Microsoft Excel statistical function not only can greatly reduce labor intensity, but also improve the work efficiency and prediction effect.