| 森林火灾重灾年与SOI异常变化关系的分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张朝阳.森林火灾重灾年与SOI异常变化关系的分析方法[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2006,35(6):669-672. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张朝阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建农林大学计算机与信息学院,福州,350002 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据福建省建阳市1955-1994年的森林火灾面积统计数据和1952-1994年南方涛动指数(SO I),运用异常度辨识法分析了建阳市森林火灾重灾年前后3 a的SO I异常度变化规律和特点.结果表明,前2 a和前3 a的SO I异常度值均接近显著异常水平,前1 a的异常度值为显著异常,说明异常度辨识法对于科学预测森林火灾重灾年有重要的参考价值.
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| 关 键 词： | 异常度 辨识法 森林火灾 重灾年 南方涛动指数 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-5470(2006)06-0669-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-09-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-08 |
Analysis method of the relationships between serious forest fire year and SOI abnormal changes |
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| ZHANG Chao-yang.Analysis method of the relationships between serious forest fire year and SOI abnormal changes[J].Journal of Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University,2006,35(6):669-672. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Chao-yang |
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| Institution: | College of Computer and Information, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry Univemity, Fuzhou, Fujian 350002, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the area statistics of forest fire during 1955-1994 in Jianyang,Fujian,and the south ocillation index(SOI) during 1952-1994,the discerning method for anomaly degree was adopted to analyze the rules and characteristics of the variety of SOI anomaly degrees three years fore-and-aft the year of heavy disaster.The result showed both the anomaly degrees of two years and three years ahead of the key year were close to the obvious abnormal level,and the anomaly degree of the year before the key year was at an obvious abnormal level.It indicated that the discerning method of abnormal degree had been of great reference value to the scientific prediction on the year of serious forest fire. |
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| Keywords: | abnormal degree discerning method forest fire serious year south ocillation index(SOI) |
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