基于食物安全的耕地需求分析与预测

为在耕地资源短缺与食物消费结构改变的大背景下合理分析用地需求，保障食物安全，以河南省居民的食物消费情况为研究对象，采用构建时间序列预测模型的方法，基于经济发展和食物结构对河南省未来15~30年的食物需求进行分析，并结合推算结果对不同食物类型所需土地分别计算，得出基于食物安全的耕地需求量。结果表明:1)2000—2019年河南省居民食物消费结构变化显著，植物类食物始终占据较大比重，动物类消费的所占比例呈增长趋势；2)河南省城乡居民耕地需求变化存在一定差异，农村居民的人均耕地需求由城镇居民的1.2倍下降至占城镇居民人均耕地需求的82%。耕地总需求变化趋势为缓慢减少后逐步上升且保持上升趋势，最高约508万hm²；3)河南省人口规模、作物单产水平和食物消费结构均对河南省耕地需求产生着重大影响。其中，主要影响因素是食物消费结构的改变，单产水平提高对缓解人口增长带来的耕地需求压力有重要作用；4)预测发现河南省现有耕地虽能够满足2035—2050年该省人民食物需求，但是河南省作为食物输出大省，无法在满足本省人民食物需求的同时，保持现有的食物供应比例。最后，根据预测结果与河南省耕地保护现状，基于食物安全以市场需求为导向提出相关建议。

Analysis and forecast of cultivated land demand based on food security

In order to rationality analyze land demand and ensure food safety in the context of shortage of cultivated land resources and changes in food consumption structure, the food consumption of residents in Henan Province is taken as research object. The time series prediction model is adopted, and the food demand in Henan Province in the next 15 to 30 years based on the economic development and food structure is analyzed. Combined with the calculated results, the land areas required by different food types are respectively calculated and the cultivated land demand based on food security is obtained. The results are as follows: 1)From 2000 to 2019, the food consumption structure of Henan Province residents changed significantly. Plant food always accounted for a large proportion, while the proportion of animal consumption showed an increasing trend. 2)There was a certain difference in the demand for cultivated land between urban and rural residents in Henan Province. The per capita demand for cultivated land of rural residents decreased from 1. 2 times to 82% of that of urban residents. The total demand for arable land decreased slightly at first and then gradually increased and kept an upward trend, which reached 5. 07 million hectares at the highest. 3)The population size, crop yield per unit area and food consumption structure of Henan Province all displayed a significant impact on the demand for cultivated land in Henan Province. The main factor was the change of food consumption structure, and the improvement of yield per unit area played an important role in alleviating the demand pressure of cultivated land caused by population growth. 4)Although the existing cultivated land in Henan Province could meet the food demand of local people from 2035 to 2050, as a major food export province, it could not meet the food demand of local people and maintain the existing proportion of food supply. Finally, according to the forecast results and the current situation of cultivated land protection in Henan Province, relevant suggestions are put forward based on the market demand for food safety.