福建省县域森林转型社会经济影响因素分析

【目的】研究森林转型的主要社会经济影响因素,为推动区域社会经济与森林生态协调发展提供参考。【方法】基于福建省32个典型样本县2000—2016年遥感影像,获取森林面积数据,结合社会经济统计数据,利用分位数回归方法研究不同森林资源条件下社会经济和制度等因素对森林转型的影响。【结果】1)林农人均收入水平对森林面积增长具有显著促进作用,在森林资源适中的地区,人均收入提高对森林转型的促进效应较大,而在森林资源较为丰富或相对匮乏的地区,人均收入提高对森林转型的促进效应较小;2)人均粮食产量对森林转型具有显著正向作用,在森林资源相对匮乏的地区,人均粮食产量提高对森林面积增长的促进效应更显著;3)集体林权制度改革对森林转型具有负向影响。【结论】林农收入增长和人均粮食产量提高是促进福建省县域森林转型的重要因素,提高林区人均收入水平、促进土地集约化利用有助于森林面积恢复和增长;集体林权制度改革对森林转型具有负向作用,应进一步完善集体林权制度配套改革,形成促进林农投资林业的长效激励。

Analysis of Socio-Economic Influencing Factors of Forest Transition in Counties of Fujian Province

【Objective】To explore the main socio-economic drivers of forest transition and provide reference for promoting the coordinated development of regional socio-economy and forest ecology.【Method】Based on the remote sensing images and socio-economic statistics of 32 sample counties in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2016,this paper studies the impact of socio-economic and institutional factors on forest transition under different resource endowments by quantile regression method.【Result】1)Farmer per capita income has a significantly positive effect on the growth of forest area,and in counties with moderate forest resources endowment,per capita income has a greater effect on forest transition,while in counties with rich or relatively low forest resources endowment,per capita income has a smaller effect.2)Grain yield per capita has a significantly positive impact on forest area,and in counties with relatively low forest resources endowment,grain yield per capita has a greater effect on forest transition.3)The collective forest tenure reform has a negative effect on forest transition.【Conclusion】Increase of farmers income and grain yield per capita is an important factor to promote forest transition in Fujian Province,which shows that raising the per capita income level in rural areas and promoting intensive use of agricultural land contribute to the restoration and growth of forest area.The reform of collective forest tenure system has a negative effect on forest transformation,which indicates that the collective forest tenure reform should be further improved to form a long-term incentive for forest farmers to invest in forestry.