Modelling the transport of particles in the North Sea with reference to sandeel larvae

The transport of particles representing sandeel larvae in the North Sea is simulated with a three-dimensional circulation model for the years 1976 to 1990. A great year-to-year variability in drift patterns is demonstrated. The results may explain some of the observed differences in recruitment between the main sandeel areas in the North Sea. In the northern sandeel area it seems that strong year classes are unlikely if the retention due to unfavourable currents is poor, and that a high retention in the summer may favour a good year class. In the southern sandeel area no clear coupling between year class strength and larval drift is found, possibly because the retention always seems large enough for a potentially good year class. For more quantitative use of such models in relation to sandeel recruitment, more biological knowledge is obviously needed on larval vertical distribution and timing of sandeel hatching and settling.