塔里木河流域耕地面积动态变化特征及驱动因子

目的]对塔里木河流域耕地面积动态变化特征及驱动因子进行分析,为实现区域内耕地保护与可持续利用提供理论依据。方法]依据1990—2014年塔里木河"九源一干"区域各地州的统计资料,分析塔里木河流域耕地面积和重心的变化特点,将主成分分析与多元回归分析相结合,探讨耕地面积变化的驱动因子。结果](1)1990—2014年,耕地总面积由1.01×106 hm~2增加到2.05×106 hm~2,人均耕地面积由0.131hm~2增加到0.194hm~2,耕地面积重心向东偏北方向移动61.10km;(2)社会经济发展、人口增加和农业生产发展是耕地面积变化的主要驱动因子;(3)建立了耕地面积与驱动因子之间的多元线性回归模型(R2=0.960),检验结果表明模拟值与实际值之间没有显著差异(p0.05)。结论]耕地的面积和重心始终处于一个动态变化的过程中,人文因素是影响耕地特征变化的主要原因。

Change Features of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Driving Factors in Tarim River Basin

Objective] Dynamic change features of agricultural area and the driving factors were elucidate to provide theoretical foundation for the sustainable utilization and protection of cultivated land in Tarim River basin.Methods] Change characteristics of agricultural area and superficial orthocenter were analyzed according to the statistical data of all regions,including so-called "nine sources and one main stream".Both PCA and multivariate regression analysis were used to detect the driving factors.Results] (1) Total cultivated area from 1.01 × 106 hm2 to 2.05 × 106 hm2,from 0.131 hm2 to 0.194 hm2 for each person.Orthocenter of the agricultural area moved northeastward with a distance about 61.10 km.(2) Three main factors as socioeconomic development,increase in population and development of agricultural production drove the changes of agricultural area.(3) The established multi-linear regression model (R2 =0.960) between agricultural area and driving factors showed that there was no significant difference(p＞0.05) between the simulated values and the actual values.Conclusion] It was always in a dynamically changing status for agricultural area and orthocenter.Human factors were the major influencing cause of the cultivated land.