气候变暖背景下云的趋势研究

[目的]研究气候变暖对南方地区云量和云状结构的影响。[方法]通过抽样选取赣南的赣县、南康市、上犹、信丰国家气象站2004～2011年年平均气温、年平均总云量、年平均低云量等气候资料,分析赣南地区年平均气温的变化对年平均总云量、年平均低云量、云状结构的影响。[结果]气候变暖对南方地区云量和云状结构正在产生影响。年平均气温升高,年平均总云量、年平均低云量呈总体减少趋势;年平均气温降低,年平均总云量、年平均低云量总体呈升高态势;年平均气温在低位与上一年持平时,年平均总云量、年平均低云量增多。年平均低云量山区与盆地表现形式各异。年平均气温对海拔较低的盆地区的年平均总云量、年平均低云量影响呈平缓波动形态,对海拔较高的山区的影响较剧烈;年平均气温升高对高云量的影响更大;年平均气温的降低对年平均低云量的影响更大。不同的天气形势下,低云的生消变化有不同的表现形式。[结论]该研究为我国南方地云量和云状结构随气候变暖而变化的研究提供科学依据。

Study on Cloud Change Trend under the Influences of Climate Warming

[Objective] The research aimed to study influences of the climate warming on cloudage and cloud-like structure in south area.[Method] Annual average temperature,total cloudage and low cloudage in Ganxian,Nankang,Shangyou and Xinfeng of Gannan area from 2004 to 2011 were selected.Influences of the annual average temperature change on annual average total cloudage,annual average low cloudage and cloud-like structure in Gannan area were analyzed.[Result] Climate warming is affecting cloudage and cloud-like structure in south area.When annual average temperature rose,annual average total cloudage and low cloudage both presented decrease trends.When annual average temperature declined,annual average total cloudage and low cloudage both presented rise trends.When annual average temperature was equal to that in previous year at low level,annual average total cloudage and low cloudage increased.Annual average low cloudage was different in mountain area and basin.Influence of the annual average temperature on annual average total cloudage and low cloudage in basin area at low altitude presented slow fluctuation form,and had severe influence on that in mountain area at high altitude.Rise of the annual average temperature had larger influence on high cloudage.Declining of the annual average temperature had larger influence on annual average low cloudage.Under different weather situations,formation and disappearance change of the low cloud had different manifestation forms.[Conclusion] The research provided scientific basis for studying changes of the cloudage and cloud-like structure in South China as climate warming.