Factors determining the distribution of a keystone understory taxon, dwarf bamboo of the section Crassinodi, on a national scale: application to impact assessment of climate change in Japan

The objective of this study was to identify climatic factors determining the distribution of a keystone understory taxon, section Crassinodi of the genus Sasa, and assess the impacts of climate change on the taxon. Relationships between the distribution of sect. Crassinodi and five climatic variables were explored using classification tree analysis. Potential habitats under current climate and future climate in 2081–2100 were predicted. Potential habitats were further divided into suitable and marginal habitats. The predictive accuracy of the model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis and by comparing model predictions with an independent dataset. The model was reasonably accurate. It showed that the warmth index (WI) and snow cover were the most important climatic variables for Crassinodi distribution. Potential habitats were limited to cooler regions with WI <102.7°C month. Suitable habitats were limited to even cooler regions with WI <84.8°C month. The model also showed that areas with deeper snow than previously reported would provide suitable habitats for Crassinodi under some climatic conditions. In 2081–2100, 37.4% of current potential habitats are predicted to become non-habitats because of increases in WI. Most currently suitable habitats are predicted to vanish from western Japan by 2081–2100. Meanwhile, Hokkaido and high-elevation areas of eastern Honshu will sustain suitable habitats. Sect. Crassinodi, which is adapted to less snowy climates, is predicted to be more affected by climate change than sect. Sasa and Macrochlamys, which are adapted to snowy climates.