气候变化对河北省棉花物候期的影响

【目的】研究河北省棉花物候期对气候变化的响应。【方法】利用气象数据和棉花物候期数据,分析了1981—2010年河北省棉花各生育阶段气候变化特征、物候期变化趋势、各生育阶段长短变化趋势以及各生育阶段长短与该生育阶段气象因子的相关性。【结果】1)棉花各生育阶段平均温度和≥0℃积温整体呈升高趋势;2)棉花播种期、出苗期、现蕾期、开花期、吐絮期呈提前趋势,而收获期呈延后趋势。开花之前各生育阶段缩短,开花之后各生育阶段延长,整个生长期延长;3)吐絮之前各个生育阶段的平均温度、≥0℃积温与该生育阶段长短呈负相关,吐絮到收获及全生育期的天数与该时期平均温度、≥0℃积温呈正相关。【结论】研究结果有助于理解气候变化对棉花生长发育的影响,并据此提出棉花生产应对气候变化的适应技术与策略。

Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Phenophase in Hebei Province

Objective] The study aimed to investigate the response of cotton phenophase to climate change in Hebei Province.Method] Using 1981-2010 cotton phenophase and meteorological data from agricultural meteorological experimental stations and meteorological stations in Hebei Province,China,we analyzed trendsin climatic factors,cotton phenophase,and the timingof different cotton developmental stages.We also calculated Spearman coefficients between the days of different cotton developmental stages and meteorological factors at typical stations in Hebei Province.Result] We observed the following results over the investigated timeffame:1) In Hebei Province,Tmax and accumulated temperature ≥0℃ increased during each cotton developmental stage.2) Sowing,emergence,squaring,flowering and boll-opening phenophases advanced,but harvesting was delayed.Consequently,developmental stages prior tothe flowering phenophase were shortened,whereas those after flowering were lengthened.The entire developmental period was therefore extended.3) Prior to boll opening,Tmax and accumulated temperature ≥ 0℃ at each developmental stage were negatively correlated with the length of different developmental stages.After boll opening,however,Tmax andaccumulated temperatme ≥ 0℃ at each developmental stage as well asover the entire period of development were positively correlated with developmental stage length.Conclusion] This research,which helps explain the mechanisms underlying the impact of climate change on cotton growth and development,can aid the development of technologies and strategies for adaptation of cotton production to climate change.