小水电代燃料生态保护区农村用电量预测研究

小水电代燃料生态保护工程是以生态效益为主的公益性工程，论文结合小水电代燃料生态保护工程的特点，利用灰色系统理论建立了项目区未实施小水电代燃料情况的农村年用电量预测模型，将实施小水电代燃料工程后的农村用电量分为代燃料生活用电量和常规用电量两部分，应用弹性系数法建立了常规用电量预测模型。实例应用表明，灰色预测模型和弹性系数预测模型对于小水电代燃料农村用电量和常规用电量预测是十分有效的；小水电代燃料工程实施后，不仅会极大地增加代燃料用电量，也会带动项目区常规用电量的增长。研究成果为小水电代燃料工程的生态环境效益评估、确定代燃料电价、制定多能互补方案奠定了科学基础。

Estimation of the rural electric power consumption in the ecological protection areas with implementing the project of small hydropower for fuel

The ecological benefit is the main aim to achieve for implementing the project of small hydro-power for fuel. Based on the characteristics of the project, the authors present the grey forecast model for estimating annual electric power consumption needed in rural areas without the project on the basis of grey system theory. The electric power used in rural areas is divided into the electric power for livelihood and the conventional electric power, and the prediction model for conventional electric power was set up with the elastic coefficient method. The prediction model of grey theory and elastic coefficient method were verified to be valid for estimating electric power needed by rural and conventional electric power consumptions through applying the two models. The implementation of the project of small hydro-power for fuel does not only greatly increase the electric power for fuel, but also increase the conventional electric power consumption of the project area. The research laid a scientific foundation for evaluating environmental and ecological benefit, calculating the electric price and drafting the complementary program energy.