| 基于马尔可夫模型的郑州市土地利用动态变化预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 何瑞珍,闫东峰,张敬东,陈书广,王建设,王林忠. 基于马尔可夫模型的郑州市土地利用动态变化预测[J]. 勤云标准版测试, 2006, 0(9) |
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| 作者姓名： | 何瑞珍 闫东峰 张敬东 陈书广 王建设 王林忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南农业大学 河南郑州450002(何瑞珍，闫东峰，陈书广，王林忠)，郑州测绘学校 河南郑州450052(张敬东，王建设) |
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| 摘 要： | 以郑州市为研究对象,利用1995年、2000年的土地利用现状图,运用GIS技术分析了土地利用动态变化过程以及土地利用各类型之间的相互转化情况。在此基础上,求得研究区土地利用变化的转移矩阵,据此分析郑州市1995—2000年间土地利用动态变化的空间过程。同时运用马尔柯夫模型对2005年和2010年的土地利用动态变化及演变趋势预测进行了分析,得出研究区内耕地进一步增加,林地总面积也在减少,城乡、工矿、居民用地的总量在减小的结论,从而达到全面把握郑州市土地变化规律的目的。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 转移矩阵 动态变化 马尔柯夫模型 |
The Markov Process for the Forecast of Land use Dynamic Changes in Zhengzhou City |
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| He Ruizhen,Yan Dongfeng,Zhang Jingdong,Chen Shuguang,Wang Jianshe,Wang Linzhong. The Markov Process for the Forecast of Land use Dynamic Changes in Zhengzhou City[J]. , 2006, 0(9) |
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| Authors: | He Ruizhen Yan Dongfeng Zhang Jingdong Chen Shuguang Wang Jianshe Wang Linzhong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Forestry and Horticulture College of Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002; 2. Zhengzhou Mapping and Surveying School, Zhengzhou 450052 |
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| Abstract: | Regarded Zhengzhou as the research object, the dynamic process of the land use and the situation of all the categories of the land use transformation were analyzed using 1995 and 2000 year''s land use maps. The transition probability matrix was calculated. Then, the spatial process from 1995 to 2000 was analyzed. The Markov process was applied to analyze and forecast the variation tendency of land use in 2005 and in 2010. The conclusion was drawn that the area of plantation increased, but that of the forest, town and countryside decreased. The change discipline was obtained. |
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| Keywords: | Land use Transition probability matrix Variation change Markov model |
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