凉山州北部近50年降水变化特征分析

利用凉山州北部（甘洛、越西、冕宁、喜德四站）1961—2010 年降水量资料，采用一元线性回归、趋势分析、Mann-Kendall 法等方法，研究分析了凉山州北部近50a 降水变化趋势和特征。结果表明:(1)近50 年来降水量呈上升增加趋势，变化倾向率最大为38.7mm/10a（通过了α=0.05 显著性检验）；（2）从年降水变率变化趋势分析中发现，近50 年旱少涝多(仅甘洛在1972 年出现一次干旱)；（3）暴雨次数随着年代的推移整体呈增多趋势，并且由北向南明显增多；（4）通过对降水量进行M-K检验，甘洛、越西、喜德站检测出了突变，均有增多的趋势的突变，其中甘洛突变增多趋势十分显著，冕宁没有检测出突变。

Analyses of Variation Characteristics of the Precipitation in the North of LiangShan City in Recent 50 Years

Based on the annual precipitation data in the north of LiangShan city（GanLuo, YueXi, MianNing and XiDe） during 1961 to 2010, linear regression, trend analysis and Mann-Kendall Method were used to analyze the characteristics of precipitation trend and characteristics. The results show that yearly mean precipitation has an increasing tendency during recent 50 years, the change rate is 38.7 mm/10a（across α=0.05 significant test）. Analyzing the tendency of the annual precipitation change rate, there are less drought and more floods in recent 50 years.（Drought only occurred once in GanLuo in 1972.） Heavy rain has an overall increasing trend with the passing of years, and a significant increase from the north to the south. Through M-K test of precipitation, there are increasing trend of mutations of annual precipitation in GanLuo, YueXi and XiDe, a significantly decreasing trend in GanLuo.