近30年毛乌素沙区的气候与厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件的相关分析

本文利用毛乌素沙区 8个气象站近 30年的气象资料 ,运用MicrosoftExcel2 0 0 0和X2 检验 ,分析了该区近30年来的气候变化特点及其与厄尔尼诺 /拉尼娜事件的相关程度。研究表明 :近 30年来 ,毛乌素沙区的气候总体上呈暖干化趋势 ,降水量减少 ,降水的稳定性增强 ,气温升高 ,气温的波动性增大 ,且存在明显的区内差异 ;厄尔尼诺事件对毛乌素沙区的降水量影响程度较大 ,厄尔尼诺年降水量明显减少 ,且下一年降水量增多 ;拉尼娜事件对毛乌素沙区的气温有一定影响 ,拉尼娜年气温相对降低 ;拉尼娜年降水量略有增加趋势 ,厄尔尼诺年气温有所升高 ,但都达不到统计上的相关水平。

Analysis on the Correlation between the Climate Change over Mu Us Sandland and the El Nino/La Nina Events since recent 30 Years

In the research on global climate change, the response of the regions with vulnerable ecology and of the physiographical ecotones is one of the main domains. The Mu Us Sandland is located in the farming-pastoral ecotone in north China, the desertification here is serious and the ecology is vulnerable. This paper analyzes the correlative degree between the climate change over the sandland and the El Nino/La Nina events since recent 30 years by using the meteorological data collected by 8 meteorological stations in the sandland. The results show that the climate over the sandland is in a warming-drying trend since recent 30 years: the precipitation reduces but its stability increases; the temperature and its fluctuation increase but they are different from the different regions. The influence of the El Nino events on the precipitation over the sandland is great: the annual precipitation in the years of El Nino events is obviously decreased but it is increased next year. The La Nina events have a certain influence to the air temperature. The annual air temperature is relatively decreased and the precipitation is slightly increased in the years of La Nina events, the air temperature is increase to some extent in the years of El Nino events, but they are not up to the correlative level in the statistics.