桂林动物物候对气候变化的响应分析

利用统计学方法，对桂林气候（1951—2008年）和3种动物物候（1983—2008年）的趋势变化特征进行了分析，并探讨了动物物候期与气温、降水、日照等气候因子的相关性及其对主要气候影响因子的响应情况。结果表明，在气候变化背景下，桂林市动物各个物候期发生了不同程度的变化，始鸣（见）期和绝鸣（见）期既有提前，又有推迟，始鸣（见）期以呈提前趋势为主，绝鸣（见）期以呈推迟趋势为主；始绝鸣（见）间隔日数，3种动物均一致延长。桂林市动物物候期与其发生时和发生前1～5个月的气候因子相关较显著。动物物候期变化对气温和降水量变化的响应最敏感，而对日照的反映不敏感，即动物物候期的变化主要是气温和降水变化共同作用的结果。

Responses of Animal Phenology to Climate Change in Guilin Area

Mathematical statistics were applied to investigate tendencies of climate change during 1951-2008 and phenology of three kinds of animals in 1983-2008,as well as the correlations with temperature,sunshine duration and precipitation.The tendencies of the responses of phenological events to the main climatic factors influencing were discussed.The results showed that the animal phenological events were changed in varying degrees along with local climate changes.The beginning occurrence stage and beginning warb...