青海湖地区牧草返青期长期预报经验模式

依照预报效果好、资料取得方便、实用性强、有理论支撑等四个原则,建立了青海湖西岸、东北岸地区牧草返青期长期预报经验模式。研究结果显示,不同量级的降水日数、蒸发量、封冻前土壤湿度对次年牧草返青期影响显著。文中建立的预报模式是不断地完善和反复地实践所得出的经验模式,简单、实用,希望能对其他地区的牧草返青期预报工作有所借鉴和启发。

THE LONG-TERN PRACTICAL FORECASTING MODEL OF HERBAGE REGREENING STAGE AROUND QINGHAI LAKE

According to four principles of the better forecasting result,handy access of getting data,strong practicability,foundation of theory and so on,the long-term forecasting model of herbage regreening stage was built in area of the west and northeast shore of Qinghai Lake.The result showed that it influenced the regreening stage of herbage in next year notability,which was the days of precipitation evaporation and the soil humidity before soil freezing stage.These were longtime factors adopted in the model away from regreening stage,and that the forecasting model had strong ability of forecasting,and that it had the guiding function for around husbandry and management of eeo-environment around Qinghai Lake.