广东省近60年极端气温的时空演变研究

极端气温反映了气候变化的趋势， 对极端气温的时空特征进行深入分析能更准确地预报各种极端天气事件的发生.根据广东省1961-2019年的36个台站逐日最高气温和最低气温资料，利用RClimDex模型、结合Mann-Kendall 非参数检验方法及空间插值、Pearson相关性分析等方法探究了广东省近60年间极端气温的时空演变特征. 结果表明，广东省在近60年间，极端气温指数的年际倾向率呈现上升趋势，在近10年以来极端气温变化趋势的上升幅度更为明显，表明广东省近60年间极端气温呈显著变暖趋势. 极端高温指数中极高值（Max Tmax, TXx）和日最低气温的极低值(Min Tmax, TNn)发生突变的时间分别在90年代末期和80年代初期，且TNn、日最低气温的极高值(Max Tmin, TNx)率先开始呈上升趋势. 空间分布上，TXx表现为离海岸线的距离越远，温度越高，日最高气温的极低值(Min Tmax, TXn)、TNn刚好与之相反，TNx则表现为纬度越高温度越低，呈现出海陆地带性和纬度地带性特征. 广东省不同区域极端气温极值指数变化趋势与整个广东省情况大体一致，但珠三角地区的极端气温极值指数上升趋势更快. 极端气温指数与自然、社会经济因素均存在相关性，其中纬度和人口数量对其影响更大.

Research on temporal and spatial evolution of extreme temperature in Guangdong province during past 60 years

Extreme temperature can reflect the trend of climate change. In depth analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme temperature could predict the occurrence of various extreme weather events more accurately, and provide scientific reference for actively coping with extreme weather event. Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 36 stations in Guangdong province from 1961 to 2019, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme temperature in Guangdong province during the past 60 years were explored in this paper，by using RClimDex model, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test method and Pearson correlation analysis. Results showed that the inter-annual trend rates of the extreme temperature index in Guangdong province have been increasing in the past 60 years, and exhibited the most obvious increase in the past 10 years, meaning a significant warming trend of the extreme temperature in Guangdong province. The time of mutations in TXx and TNn occurred in the late 1990s and early 1980s, and the extreme low temperature indexes TNn and TNx were the first to show an upward trend. In terms of spatial distribution, the temperature of TXx increased with the distance to the coastline, while TXn and TNn showed the opposite variations. For TNx, the higher the latitude was, the lower the temperature was. The extreme temperature had the characteristics of sea and land zonality and latitude zonality. The variation trend of extreme temperature in different regions of Guangdong province was similar with that of the whole province, but the Pearl River Delta region exhibited a faster increasing trend. Extreme temperature indices were correlated with both natural and socio-economic factors, while latitude and population had greater impacts.