Population viability of Cape mountain zebra in Gamka Mountain Nature Reserve, South Africa: the influence of habitat and fire

The small Cape mountain zebra population in Gamka Mountain Nature Reserve represents a third of the entire gene pool of this endangered species and is thus vital for it’s conservation. Presently, management of this population is largely hands off, with the belief that it will grow to levels which will allow it to form a source for the mixing of mountain zebra stocks in the future. The growth of this population however, has been slow and we investigated the influence of habitat and fire on this growth. Firstly, we used a diffusion model to perform a population viability analysis. This analysis indicated that the population had a low probability of attaining quasi-extinction in the next 50 years (G = 0.0032). However, our findings indicated that less than 30% of the reserve was suitable for mountain zebra and that the preferred habitat would have to be burnt at unnaturally short intervals to sustain the present growth. We therefore argue that the risk of quasi-extinction to this population is greater than predicted and suggest that management options need to be implemented to reduce this risk. These options include; translocation to another protected area; acquisition of adjacent land; burning preferred habitat at unnaturally short intervals; forming a conservancy with adjacent landowners; leasing cultivated land for pasture. We suggest that only the latter two options are likely to stimulate mountain zebra population growth in the short term and that these should receive immediate attention.