| 水资源约束下的新疆城市化过程预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 聂春霞,刘晏良. 水资源约束下的新疆城市化过程预测[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2012, 0(6): 193-197 |
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| 作者姓名： | 聂春霞 刘晏良 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学经济与管理学院;新疆维吾尔自治区发展改革委员会经济研究院;新疆维吾尔自治区发展改革委员会 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆维吾尔自治区发展改革委员会经济研究院"万元课题";新疆大学世川良一优秀研究生科研项目"经济发展与城市宜居性评价研究"(NO.XJU-SYLLF1004)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据新疆城市化的特点,利用系统动力学理论,构建了水资源对城市化约束的系统仿真模型,设定高、中、低三种速度的城市化方案。由计算机仿真和分析得出,新疆不宜采取低速度或高速度的城市化方案,适合采取中速度的城市化方案。最后讨论了模型存在的不足和需要进一步完善的地方,并提出新疆各地区的水资源量差异较大,今后要进一步研究各地区水资源对城市化进程的约束。
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| 关 键 词： | SD模型 水资源约束 城市化 新疆 系统动力学 |
The prediction of urbanization in Xinjiang under water resource constraint |
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| NIE Chunxia,LIU Yanliang. The prediction of urbanization in Xinjiang under water resource constraint[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2012, 0(6): 193-197 |
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| Authors: | NIE Chunxia LIU Yanliang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,P.R.China; 2.Institute of economy research,Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission,Urumqi 830002,P.R.China; 3.Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission,Urumqi 830002,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the characteristics of urbanization in Xinjiang,system simulation model for urbanization in Xinjiang was built with system dynamics.High,medium,and low rates of urbanization plans were set.Computer simulation results indicated medium-speed urbanization program is suitable in Xinjiang.Finally we discussed the lack and improvement in the model and proposed that water resources exist large difference in Xinjiang.Further we studied water resources constraints on the process of urbanization of Xinjiang region. |
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| Keywords: | SD model water resources constraint urbanization Xinjiang system dynamics |
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