新疆乌-昌地区太阳能资源精细化时空变化分析

利用新疆乌昌地区16个气象站1961年至2009年的逐日日照时数资料和乌鲁木齐站逐日太阳辐射资料,在使用气候学方法估算出各站逐年太阳总辐射的基础上,采用线性趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检测对年日照时数和年太阳总辐射变化趋势、突变特征进行分析,应用混合插值法建立年日照时数和年太阳总辐射多年平均值及其突变前后变化量的空间分布式数学模型,在ArcGis平台上完成基于数字高程模型(DEM)数据的年日照时数和年太阳总辐射及其突变前后变化量的100m×100m格点的精细化分布式模拟。结果表明:乌昌地区年日照时数和年太阳总辐射总体表现为"平原多,山区少;东部多,西部少"的空间分布格局。近49a,乌昌地区年日照时数和年太阳总辐射呈较显著的减少趋势,并分别于1986年和1984发生了突变性的减少,但突变后较突变前,各地年日照时数和年太阳总辐射变化具有较明显的区域性差异,其减少幅度总体表现为平原多于山区,东部多于西部。

Solar energy resource spatial-temporal variation in Urumqi-Changji region of Xinjiang

Based on the daily sunshine hours data of 16 meteorological stations and daily global solar radiation data of Urumqi meteorological station from 1961 to 2009 in Urumqi-Changji region of Xinjiang,the annual global solar radiation from 1961 to 2009 of each meteorological stations were estimated by used of climatic methods,and the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristics of annual sunshine hours and global solar radiation were analyzed by use of linear trend,Mann-Kendall test and three-dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and inverse-distance square weighting residual error revising based on GIS.The main results showed that annual sunshine hours and global solar radiation were more in plain and eastern areas than in mountain and western areas of Urumqi-Changji region.The annual sunshine hours and global solar radiation were significantly decreased in recent 49 years and they had the discontinuity reduced in 1986 and 1984 respectively.But the change had distinct regional differences.After 1986,the annual sunshine hours and global solar radiation decrease range was larger in plain and eastern areas than in mountain and western areas of Urumqi-Changji region.