土地利用结构动态演变及预测研究——以张掖市为例

基于张掖市1999-2009年土地利用变更数据,采用信息熵,空间洛伦茨曲线、基尼系数和GM(1,1)模型分析方法,对张掖市土地利用结构的动态演变进行了定量分析,同时对2010和2020年的信息熵、洛伦茨曲线和基尼系数进行了预测。结果表明:1)张掖市各县区土地利用类型的空间分布及其时间变化都具有不均衡性,有序度低,结构性差的特点,但已呈现良好方向发展的趋势。信息熵经历了2个阶段,1999-2003年缓慢不规律上升,2004-2009年稳定上升。牧草地与信息熵变化关联最大。2)空间洛伦茨曲线-基尼系数分析得出:耕地、园地和其他农用地分布趋于均匀,但地区间差距仍很大,牧草地、林地和未利用地的分布趋于分散,交通运输用地分布相对合理;3)2010年和2020年信息熵、空间洛伦茨曲线-基尼系数预测结果与现状分析结果相似,已逐步向更好的方向发展。

Dynamic evolution and prediction of land use structure in Zhangye

Based on the land use data of Zhangye city from 1999 to 2009,we made a quantitative analysis of the dynamic evolution of the land use structure by using the analyzing approaches such as the information entropy,Lorenz Curve,Gini Coefficients and the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory and made a prediction on information entropy,Lorrenze Curve and Gini Coefficients of the city in 2010 and 2020.The result showed firstly the distribution of different land use types showed the trend of temporal and spatial unbalance,low order degree,but it began to develop toward a good direction.The information entropy had gone through two stages.It slowly grew without any regular pattern in 1999-2003 and grew steadily in 2004-2009.The grassplot had the maximal relevance with information entropy.Secondly,from the analysis of the Lorenz curve and Gini co-efficiency,the unbalanced degree of the cultivated land,garden plot and other farm-land decreased,but the gaps between regions was still large.While the use of grassplot,woodland and other lands exhibited an opposite trend,in addition,the distribution of traffic land was relatively reasonable.Thirdly,the predicted results were similar with the information entropy,Loren Curve and Gini Coefficients with current situation,but it developed toward a better direction.