宁夏平原采暖期气候变化特征及其社会经济影响分析——以平罗县为例

利用1960-2009年采暖期日平均气温资料和城镇供暖资料,以平罗县为例,应用气候统计方法,对宁夏平原采暖期平均气温、与能耗相关的采暖初日、终日、采暖度日等要素的气候变化特征以及气候变化对节能减排的影响进行了探讨,分析了经济与环境效益。结果表明:1)采暖期气温存在明显升高趋势。2)20世纪90年代采暖期的平均气温发生了突变。3)20世纪90年代起春季回暖有明显的提前趋势,采暖初日逐年推后,采暖期缩短,采暖度日明显减少。4)结合供暖指标分析表明,宁夏平原采暖期节能减排的经济和环境效益显著。5)根据气候变化情况,建议改变传统的采暖规定,加强集中供暖。应对气候变化具有很大的节能减排潜力。

Analysis on climate change characters and its socio-economic impact during heating period in Ningxia plain:A case study on Pingluo

With the data of diurnal average temperature and heating in Pingluo county during heating period of 1960-2009,applied climate statistics,the climate change characters of average temperature,beginning and end dates of heating and Heating Degree-Day during heating period in Ningxia plain,the climate change impact on energy saving and emission reduction was discussed and the economic and environment benefits were analyzed.Results showed that: 1) The average temperature during heating period in Ningxia plain shows obviously increasing tendency.2) The average temperature mutation occurred in 1990s.3) The spring warming has been observed earlier since 1990s and the beginning date has come later while end date earlier,thus the heating period has got shorter,the Heating Degree-Day decreased.4) With the heating indices,the energy saving,emission cutting and eco-environment benefits were analyzed.5) The suggestions to change the heating regulation and intensify the centralized heating were put forward,and there is potential room in Ningxia plain to cope with climate change.