| 新疆耕地动态变化与可持续发展 |
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| 引用本文： | 龙桃,熊黑钢,左永君,瓦哈甫·哈力克,张芳.新疆耕地动态变化与可持续发展[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012(1):19-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龙桃 熊黑钢 左永君 瓦哈甫·哈力克 张芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国共产党吐鲁番市委员会办公室;新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;绿洲生态教育部重点实验室;北京联合大学应用文理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(40771194);北京市属高等学校人才强教计划项目(PHR200906125)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据1949～2007年全疆及各地州耕地总量、水浇地面积等数据,采用系统聚类分析法,结合GIS的空间表达功能探讨了新疆耕地的时空动态变化特征,并运用时间序列趋势模型对其变化态势进行了预测。结果表明：近60a来,耕地总量净增290.45×104hm2,增幅高达240.10%,其中水田、水浇地、旱地面积分别增长了0.83×...
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地 动态变化 可持续发展 新疆 |
Dynamic change of cultivated land in Xinjiang and its sustainable development |
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| LONG Tao,XIONG Heigang,ZUO Yongjun,WAHAP Halik,ZHANG Fang.Dynamic change of cultivated land in Xinjiang and its sustainable development[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012(1):19-24. |
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| Authors: | LONG Tao XIONG Heigang ZUO Yongjun WAHAP Halik ZHANG Fang |
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| Institution: | 3,4(1.Turpan Commission Office of Communist Party of China,Turpan 838000,P.R.China;2.Urban Department of College of Art and Science,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100083,P.R.China;3.College of Resources and Environmental Science,Xingjiang University,Urumqi 830046,P.R.China;4.Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education,Urumqi 830046,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the cultivated land data from 1949 to 2007,using clustering analysis,and the space expression function of GIS,we studied the spatial and temporal variations of Xinjiang cultivated land,and applied time series trend model to predict its changing situation.The results showed that the total number of cultivated land completely added by 290.45×104hm2 in the past 58 years.The increasing intensification was high up to 240.10%.Area of paddy field,irrigable land and dry land separately increased by 0.83×104hm2,263.79×104hm2 and 2.53×104hm2.The changing speed of cultivated land descended in space sequence of North,South and East Xinjiang.Policy distinctly influenced the variation of cultivated land.From 2010 to 2030,total area of cultivated land will increase 120.82×104hm2 every year.The fast increase of paddy field is the main reason of its fierce rising.The increasing speed of Xinjiang cultivated land in the future is very high.The pressure of water and soil resources will increase quite a lot too.Consequently,government should make corresponding polices to reduce its adding speed,and control the total cultivated land area in the carrying capacity of water and soil resources,in order to achieve the sustainable development. |
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| Keywords: | cultivated land dynamic change sustainable development Xinjiang |
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