近20年来喀什市乡村转型发展评价

[目的]对典型干旱区绿洲城市新疆喀什市近20a来的乡村转型发展进行研究,评价当地的乡村转型发展程度及土地利用变化对乡村转型发展的影响。[方法]构建乡村转型度、城乡协调度两个评价体系,利用TOPSIS法量化喀什市1995—2015年乡村转型发展变化,通过Pearson相关分析法得出影响乡村转型发展程度的因子。[结果]喀什市乡村转型度在整体上处于上升态势,速率较慢,年际变化率为0.55%/a,城乡协调度在整体上处于微弱下降态势,年际变化率为-0.06%/a,近20a来喀什市乡村转型发展经历了低速—协调、中速—较协调、中速—不协调、高速—不协调、中速—协调5个阶段,乡村转型发展水平综合指数逐年上升,增率为0.31%/a,影响喀什市乡村转型发展的主要因子包括农业人口比重、乡村人均GDP、农民人均纯收入、第一产业劳动率及乡村污染物处理率。[结论]农业人口比重在数量上与乡村转型发展度的耦合度达0.786,农业人口比重在质量上与乡村转型发展度的耦合度达0.559,乡村人均GDP比重变化与乡村转型发展度的耦合度达0.877耕地转为建设用地的面积比重变化与乡村转型发展度的耦合度达0.641,喀什市的乡村转型发展与人口转型、经济转型、土地利用方式转型的一致性较高,属于良性的转型发展。

Evaluation of Rural Transformation Development in Kashgar City During Last 20 Years

[Objective] Taking Kashgar City, a typical oasis city in Xinjiang area, as the research area, where the rural transformation development in the last 20 years and the influence of land use change on it were discussed.[Methods] Two evaluation system were used to evaluate the rural transformation degree and the urban-rural accordance. TOPSIS method was used to quantify the change of rural transformation development during 1995-2015 in Kashgar City. The influencing factors of rural transformation development were elicited by Pearson correlation analysis.[Results] The degree of rural transformation on the whole was in a rising trend, but the rate is slow. The annual change rate was 0.55%. The urban-rural accordance degree in the whole scheduling was in a weak downward trend, the annual change rate was-0.06%. The rural transformation development in Kashgar City during 1995-2015 had experienced 5 stages, they were low speed-coordinated, intermediate speed-more coordinated, intermediate speed-more-uncoordinated, high speed-uncoordinated and intermediate speed-coordinated. The comprehensive index of rural transformation development level had a slight rise and a large fluctuation, the annual increasing rate was 0.31%. The influencing factors included:the proportion of agricultural population, the rural GDP per capita, the net income of farmers per capita, the first industry labor rate and the rural pollutant treatment rate.[Conclusion] The coupling degree between the proportions of agricultural population in quantity and quality and the rural transformation development degree were 0.786 and 0.559, respectively; the coupling degree between the proportion change of rural GDP per capita and rural transformation development degree was 0.877, the coupling degree between the proportion change of the conversion of cultivated land to construction land area and rural transformation development degree was 0.641. These implied that rural transformation of Kashgar City was in a positive development way and had high consistency with population transformation, economic transformation and land use transformation.